据Oil & Gas Journal网站4月16日消息 雷斯塔能源预计2021年石油需求将同比增长6%，从2020年的8960万桶/日攀升至9540万桶/日。估计显示，2022年石油总需求将继续上升，达到约9940万桶/日。

　　预计2021年4月需求量将达到9300万桶/日，5月和6月分别攀升至9400万桶/日和9580万桶/日。第三季度的石油总需求预计平均为9680万桶/日，第四季度将升至9830万桶/日。

　　雷斯塔能源预测，2021年全球道路燃料总需求将增长9%，从2020年的4130万桶/日增至4510万桶/日。据预测，2022年道路燃料需求将加速至约4750万桶/日。

　　预计4月份，全球道路燃油平均需求量为4420万桶/日，5月份和6月份分别增至4490万桶/日和4590万桶/日。预计第三季度和第四季度的道路燃料平均需求分别为4620万桶/日和4650万桶/日。

　　在各种燃料行业中，喷气燃料受到疫情的冲击最为严重。雷斯塔能源预计，2021年喷气燃料的平均需求量为390万桶/日，比去年的320万桶/日增长21%，但与疫情前的水平仍相差甚远。大部分复苏预计在2022年，随着航空运输恢复到更正常的水平，航空燃油需求预计将为平均540万桶/天。

　　预计4月份的航空燃油需求量将达到340万桶/日，5月份和6月份分别增至360万桶/日和390万桶/日。进一步预测，第三季度和第四季度的航空燃油平均需求分别为430万桶/日和460万桶/日。

　　王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　Rystad: Road fuels lead global oil demand recovery in 2021

　　Rystad Energy projects a 6% year-on-year increase in oil demand in 2021, climbing to an average of 95.4 million b/d from 89.6 million b/d in 2020. The estimates show that total oil demand in 2022 will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 million b/d.

　　April 2021 demand is expected to land at 93 million b/d, climbing to 94 million b/d in May and 95.8 million b/d in June. Further ahead, total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 million b/d before ascending to 98.3 million b/d in the fourth quarter.

　　Total global demand for road fuels will rise by 9% in 2021, Rystad forecast, to 45.1 million b/d, from 41.3 million b/d in 2020. Road fuel demand is forecast to accelerate in 2022 to about 47.5 million b/d.

　　In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 million b/d globally, rising to 44.9 million b/d in May and 45.9 million b/d in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 million b/d in the third quarter and 46.5 million b/d in the fourth quarter.

　　Among the various fuel sectors, jet fuel has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. Rystad expects jet fuel demand to average 3.9 million b/d in 2021, rising by 21% from 3.2 million b/d last year, but still a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when jet fuel demand is expected to average 5.4 million b/d as air traffic returns to more normal levels.

　　Jet fuel demand in April is expected to reach 3.4 million b/d, rising to 3.6 million b/d in May and 3.9 million b/d in June. Further ahead, jet fuel demand is expected to average 4.3 million b/d in the third quarter and 4.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter.

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