据天然气新闻2021年4月15日伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）在4月15日发布的其最新季度市场报告中表示，今年全球天然气需求预计将同比增加3.2%，这个增幅足以抵消去年失去的消耗。

　　报告说，去年，全球天然气需求下降了1.9%或750亿立方米，但在工业部门需求的推动下，今年全球天然气需求预计将出现复苏。

　　IEA高级分析师Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil在发布该报告的网络研讨会上表示，“我们预计今年全球天然气需求将出现反弹，我们认为这不仅足以抵消去年的影响，而且与2019年相比还会出现一些增加。”

　　然而，他表示，预期的需求增加“非常脆弱”，并取决于全球经济复苏的路径。

　　报告表示，去年全球工业部门的天然气消费仍保持弹性，预计年下降1.2%，预计今年将以5.4%的同比增长(接近550亿立方米)领先。

　　不过，Dubreuil表示，这是有风险的，因为工业部门需求增长与GDP因素“密切”相关。

　　他补充称，尽管需求(尤其是新兴市场需求)的前景正在好转，但所有地区的复苏“并不相同”。

　　“一些成熟市场，比如北美，今年不太可能出现全面复苏，” Dubreuil如是说。

　　IEA在第一季度市场报告中还表示，COVID-19大流行对全球经济长期影响的前景“为短期天然气需求增加步伐增添了进一步的不确定性”。

　　李峻 编译自 天然气新闻

　　原文如下：

　　Global gas demand to rise by 3.2% in 2021, offsetting 2020 losses: IEA

　　Global gas demand is expected to increase by 3.2% year on year in 2021, enough to more than offset the lost consumption in 2020, the International Energy Agency said in its latest quarterly market report published April 15.

　　Gas demand fell by 1.9% -- or some 75 Bcm -- in 2020, but recovery is expected this year, driven by demand in the industrial sector.

　　"We expect globally to see a rebound, sufficient in our view not only to offset last year but also show some growth compared with 2019," IEA senior analyst Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil said during a webinar presenting the report.

　　However, he said, the forecast demand growth was "highly fragile" and dependent on the path of global economic recovery.

　　Consumption in the industrial sector, which remained resilient in 2020 with an estimated 1.2% annual decline, is expected to take the lead in 2021 with 5.4% year-on-year growth -- close to 55 Bcm.

　　There is risk to this, however, because industrial demand is "intimately" related to GDP factors, Dubreuil said.

　　He added that while the picture is brightening for demand, especially in emerging markets, the recovery is "not the same" for all regions.

　　"Some mature markets -- such as North America -- are unlikely to see a full recovery this year," he said.

　　In the Q1 report, the IEA also said the prospect of a prolonged impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy "adds further uncertainty to the pace of short-term gas demand growth."

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