据道琼斯5月12日消息，欧佩克周二表示，今年美国的石油产量将再次下降，尽管经济活动广泛回升，但页岩油行业的产量几乎没有出现复苏的迹象。

　　在其备受关注的月度市场报告中，欧佩克将2021年非欧佩克产油国的产量增长预期下调20万桶/日降至70万桶/日。

　　欧佩克称，加拿大、挪威、巴西将推动非欧佩克产油国原油供应的整体增长，但持续低迷的资本支出和2月得州意外遭遇的冬季暴风雪意味着，继去年每日减少80万桶之后，今年美国原油供应料将减少10万桶/日。

　　尽管欧佩克预计今年来自非欧佩克产油国的石油供应将增加，但该组织在报告中表示，“特别是投资水平的不确定性依然存在，这预计将决定未来几年非欧佩克产油国的石油供应前景。”

　　欧佩克在报告中维持2021年全球石油需求预期不变。欧佩克预测，今年石油消费量将增加600万桶/日升至9,650万桶/日，全球石油需求量较抗疫限制措施实施前减少3.5%，这些措施致使工厂关闭，飞机停飞，人们居家避疫。

　　后疫情时代的全球经济复苏已然推动石油需求回暖，但由于各国政府在控制新冠病例数和推进疫苗接种计划方面取得的成果各异，近几个月来全球经济复苏情况也不尽相同。

　　虽然最近几个月印度和巴西新冠疫情卷土重来，但美国和英国等部分欧洲国家都成功地控制了疫情并放宽了旅行限制措施。不过，在这种快速变化且充满不确定的背景之下，欧佩克仍将2021年全球经济增长预期上调0.1个百分点，至5.5%；2020年为收缩3.5%。

　　张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯

　　原文如下：

　　Little Sign of Post-Pandemic Recovery for US Oil Production, OPEC Says

　　American oil production is set to drop again this year, with the shale industry's output showing few signs of recovery despite a broader pickup in economic activity, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Tuesday.

　　In its closely-watched monthly market report, OPEC cut its forecast for the amount it expects production from its noncartel counterparts to increase in 2021 by 200,000 barrels a day to 700,000 barrels a day.

　　Canada, Norway, Brazil will drive that overall increase, but persistently low capital expenditure and the unexpected winter storm Texas suffered in February mean U.S. supply is expected to fall by 100,000 barrels a day this year, after dropping 800,000 barrels a day last year, the cartel said.

　　Despite its forecast for a rise in supply from outside the cartel this year, OPEC said in its report that "uncertainties persist particularly with regard to levels of investment which is expected to determine the non-OPEC supply outlook for the years to come."

　　In its report, OPEC left unchanged its forecast for global oil demand in 2021. The cartel estimates consumption will rise 6 million barrels a day this year to average 96.5 million barrels a day, leaving demand 3.5% lower than it was before coronavirus pandemic restrictions shut factories, grounded planes and kept people at home.

　　The world's post-pandemic economic recovery, which has also prompted a rebound in oil demand, has been variegated in recent months due to governments' differing levels of success in keeping coronavirus case numbers at bay and rolling out vaccination programs.

　　While India and Brazil have suffered a resurgence of cases in recent months, the U.S., and parts of Europe such as the U.K. have all succeeded in bringing infections under control and lifting travel restrictions. Despite that fast-changing and uncertain backdrop, OPEC raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 by 0.1 percentage point to 5.5%, after a 3.5% contraction in 2020.

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