据能源世界网5月24日报道，高盛（goldmansachs）表示，预计今年第四季度油价将攀升至每桶80美元，市场也低估了需求反弹。

　　该银行在周日的报告中表示，因此，面对缺乏弹性的供应，疫苗驱动的需求大幅增加，油价上涨的理由依然存在。

　　高盛表示，发达市场的需求复苏将抵消最近新冠疫情对消费的冲击，以及南亚和拉丁美洲可能放缓的复苏。截至年底，全球原油日需求量可能增加460万桶，大部分增幅可能在未来3个月实现。

　　该报告表示，随着疫苗接种加速和封锁解除，美国和欧洲的流动性正在迅速增加，货运和工业活动也在激增。

　　该行还预计，OPEC+将在2021年下半年停止两个月增产

。　　郝芬 译自 能源世界网

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman sees oil hitting $80/bbl despite likely return of Iran supply

　　Goldman Sachs said it expects oil prices to climb to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, arguing that the market has underestimated a rebound in demand.

　　"The case for higher oil prices therefore remains intact given the large vaccine-driven increase in demand in the face of inelastic supply," the bank said in a note dated Sunday.

　　Goldman Sachs said a demand recovery in developed markets would offset a recent coronavirus-led hit to consumption and likely slower recovery in South Asia and Latin America.

　　Global demand could increase by 4.6 million barrels per day through year-end, with most of the gains likely in the next 3 months, it said.

　　"Mobility is rapidly increasing in the U.S. and Europe, as vaccinations accelerate and lockdowns are lifted, with freight and industrial activity also surging," the note said.

　　The bank also expects the Organization of the Oil Producing Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, to offset any ramp-up in Iran production by halting for two months an increase in its output in the second half of 2021.

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