据今日油价网站6月28日消息 彭博社周一援引此前看到的卡塔尔石油公司的债券招股说明书报道称，全球最大的液化天然气出口国之一卡塔尔预计，全球天然气需求将在2040年左右的某个时候达到峰值。
据卡塔尔国有巨头称，全球天然气需求仍有20年的增长空间，而国际能源署（IEA）上月在其2050年前净零排放报告中提醒称，在2050年前净零排放的情况下，除了今年批准的那些，世界不需要任何新的油气田开发。
根据国际能源署的净零远景，天然气将需要在2020年中期达到峰值，并在21世纪30年代平均每年下降5%以上。需求将在40年代减缓下降，因为2050年全球一半以上的天然气将用于生产氢气和碳捕获、利用和储存（CCUS）。据该机构称，这种净零情景还意味着，2020年至2050年间，液化天然气贸易将下降60%，管道输送的天然气将下降65%。
然而，国际能源署公布的政策远景（STEPS）分析了现有政策和公布政策对能源行业的影响，预计天然气需求将从2020年的39000亿立方米上升到2030年的46000亿立方米和2050年的57000亿立方米。
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Qatar: Peak Natural Gas Demand To Occur Around 2040
One of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, Qatar, expects global natural gas demand to peak at some point around 2040, Bloomberg reported on Monday, quoting a bond prospectus of Qatar Petroleum it had seen.
According to Qatar’s state-owned giant, worldwide natural gas demand still has two decades to grow, unlike the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned in its Net Zero by 2050 report last month that in a scenario of net-zero emissions by 2050, the world doesn’t need any new oil and gas field developments beyond those sanctioned this year.
According to the IEA net-zero vision, natural gas would need to peak around the mid-2020s and fall by more than 5 percent per year on average in the 2030s. Demand is then set to slow the decline in the 2040s because more than half of natural gas globally in 2050 would be used to produce hydrogen with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). This net-zero scenario would also mean that LNG trade would drop by 60 percent between 2020 and 2050, and gas carried by pipelines would fall by 65 percent, according to the agency.
However, the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) scenario—examining the consequences of existing and stated policies for the energy sector—sees natural gas demand rising from 3,900 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2020 to 4,600 bcm in 2030 and 5,700 bcm in 2050.
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