据世界能源7月1日消息：随着下半年需求增加220万桶/天，2021年底石油市场将出现500万桶/天的赤字。

　　高盛银行表示，这意味着欧佩克+需要增加供应，以帮助缩小赤字，因为其他供应商将发现，介入并提高产量更具挑战性。

　　“虽然新一轮大规模的感染浪潮可能会减缓市场再平衡，但我们预计欧佩克+在增产方面仍将保持战术性，其他地区的全球供应面临下行风险，表明原油和上游行业的前景比石油产品和下游行业更为强劲。”该说明的作者称。

　　欧佩克+将在明天的月度例会上讨论增加多少产量，以及是否增加产量。据报道，俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯再次出现意见分歧。不过，观察人士似乎有信心，这两位控制原油生产进程的领导者最终会达成一致，就像他们迄今所做的那样。

　　高盛今年早些时候以供应紧张和需求强劲反弹为由，预测油价将在今年年底前触及每桶80美元。尽管欧佩克+放松了生产限制，但该行仍坚持这一预测。

　　这家投行今年4月表示:“决不能低估需求量即将发生的变化，这种变化是供应无法比拟的。”

　　与此同时，有报道称，俄罗斯石油公司很难扭转欧佩克+协议下实施的减产，如果该说法属实，沙特阿拉伯可能会有更多空间提高产量以缓解赤字。

　　高盛预计欧佩克+从下个月起将日产量再增加50万桶。

　　冯娟 摘译自 世界能源

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman Sachs: Oil Markets To See Deficit Of 5 Million Bpd By End 2021

　　The oil market will end 2021 in a deficit of 5 million bpd as demand grows by another 2.2 million bpd in the second half of the year.

　　This means that OPEC+ needs to bring more supply online to help narrow this deficit because other suppliers would find it more challenging to step in and boost production, the bank also said.

　　"While a large new infection wave could slow the market rebalancing, we expect OPEC+ to remain tactical in its output hikes with downside risks to global supply elsewhere pointing to a more robust outlook for crude and the upstream sector than petroleum products and the downstream sector," the authors of the note said.

　　OPEC+ will discuss how much more production to add—and whether to add any at all—tomorrow at its regular monthly meeting. According to reports, Russia and Saudi Arabia again have differences of opinion. Still, observers appear confident that the two leaders of the production control push will eventually agree, as they have so far.

　　Goldman earlier this year predicted oil prices would hit $80 per barrel before this year's end, citing tight supply and the strong rebound in demand. The bank stuck to this forecast even as OPEC+ loosened its production restrictions.

　　"The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated," the investment bank said in April.

　　Meanwhile, reports say that Russian oil companies are having trouble reversing the production cuts implemented under the OPEC+ agreement, which, if true, may leave more space for Saudi Arabia to boost its production to ease the deficit.

　　Goldman expects OPEC+ to add another 500,000 bpd to its total output from next month.

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