据7月8日Oil Monster消息：美国能源信息署(EIA)周三表示，预计2021年美国原油日产量将减少21万桶，降至1110万桶，降幅小于此前预计的23万桶。

　　在石油输出国组织(欧佩克)及其盟友限制产量的推动下，油价已反弹至约三年来的最高水平。

　　油价上涨促使一些美国生产商增加钻井活动，6月份钻机总数连续11个月上升。然而，这是自2020年9月以来最低的月度增长。

　　EIA称，未来几个月，全球石油产量(主要来自欧佩克+成员国)的增幅预计将超过全球石油消费量。

　　该机构表示：“我们预计产量增加将减少过去一年大部分时间持续出现的全球石油库存减少，并将油价维持在目前水平，2021年下半年平均每桶72美元。”

　　EIA表示，预计到2022年，欧佩克+和美国致密油产量的增长以及其他供应的增加，将超过全球石油消费的增长，并导致油价下跌。

　　预计美国石油产量平均为1185万桶/天，高于2021年预计的1110万桶/天。

　　该机构预计，2021年美国石油和其他液体燃料消耗量将增加152万桶/天，至1964万桶/天，而此前预估为增加149万桶/天。

　　2022年美国石油需求预计将增加104万桶/天，至2,068万桶/天，此前预估为增加100万桶/天。

　　在全球范围内，预计2022年液体燃料的消耗量将增加370万桶/天，达到1.014亿桶/天，将超过2019年的水平。

　　冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. 2021 Crude Output to Decline Less Than Previously Forecast

　　U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.10 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 230,000 bpd.

　　Oil prices have rebounded to their highest levels in about three years, helped by output curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.

　　The rise has prompted some U.S. producers to increase drilling activity, with total rig counts rising for an 11th consecutive month in June. However, that was the smallest monthly increase since September 2020.

　　In the coming months, global oil production, largely from OPEC+ members, is expected to increase by more than global oil consumption, the EIA said.

　　"We expect rising production will reduce the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and keep prices similar to current levels, averaging $72 per barrel during the second half of 2021," the agency said.

　　In 2022, EIA said it expects growth in production from OPEC+ and U.S. tight oil production, along with other supply additions, will outpace growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices.

　　U.S. output is expected to average 11.85 million bpd, up from a forecast average of 11.10 million bpd in 2021.

　　The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.52 million bpd to 19.64 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.49 million bpd.

　　For 2022, U.S. demand is forecast to rise by 1.04 million bpd to 20.68 million bpd, compared to the previous forecast for a rise of 1 million bpd.

　　Globally, consumption of liquid fuels is expected to rise by an additional 3.7 million bpd in 2022 to 101.4 million bpd, which would surpass 2019 levels.

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