据今日油价7月13日报道，国际能源署(IEA)周二表示，今年夏季全球炼油吞吐量将大幅增长，以满足需求反弹。

　　该机构在其7月石油市场报告中称，6月全球炼油厂的日产量从5月的停滞增长上升至160万桶。

　　据路透社估计，6月份是自2020年7月以来最大的月度增幅，在6月份之后，炼油厂运营预计将在7月和8月进一步跃升。

　　IEA称，本月和下个月的日产量料较6月水准再增加270万桶。

　　这家总部位于巴黎的机构预计，8月之后，2021年第四季度炼油吞吐量将出现季节性放缓。

　　该机构表示：“6月份油价的大幅上涨，在一定程度上是当月原油价格上涨的原因之一，这对产品裂缝和炼油厂利润率造成了负面影响。”

　　据路透社报道，国际能源署在这份报告中称，尽管今年夏天炼油厂吞吐量将大幅增长，但第四季度的产量仍将低于2018年的峰值水平。

　　该机构认为，全球炼油率要到2022年底才能回到2018年的水平。国际能源署表示，欧洲炼油厂恢复到疫情前利用率的速度将较慢。

　　该机构还在今天的报告中警告称，石油市场处于紧张状态，考虑到欧佩克+联盟内部可能爆发新的价格战。IEA称，为争夺市场份额而爆发新一场“随产而战”的可能性目前被认为很遥远，但该组织在产量配额问题上的持续僵局也有可能破坏全球经济复苏。

　　“市场份额之争的可能性虽然微乎其微，但仍笼罩着市场，高油价引发通胀、破坏脆弱经济复苏的可能性也是如此。新冠病毒Delta变种在未来几个月可能产生的全球影响的不确定性也缓和了市场情绪。”

　　寿琳玲 编译自 今日油价

　　IEA: Global Refining Throughput To Jump This Summer

　　Global refining throughput is set to jump this summer to meet rebounding demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

　　Refinery runs globally surged by as much as 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, up from a stagnant performance in May, the agency said in its Oil Market Report for July published today.

　　After the June jump, which was the largest monthly increase since July 2020 as per Reuters estimates, refinery runs are expected to further jump through July and August.

　　The increase over this month and next is expected at another 2.7 million bpd from June levels, the IEA said.

　　After August, the Paris-based agency expects a seasonal slowdown in refining throughput in the fourth quarter of 2021.

　　“The sharp increase in June was partly behind higher crude oil prices in the month that negatively affected product cracks and refinery margins,” the agency said.

　　Although refinery throughput will jump this summer, runs in Q4 will still be lower than the peak in 2018, the IEA said in the report, as carried by Reuters.

　　The agency believes that global refining rates will not return to the 2018 levels until the end of 2022. Europe’s refineries would be slower to return to pre-COVID utilization rates, while China will benefit from this, the IEA said.

　　The agency also warned in its report today that the oil market is on edge, entertaining the possibility of a new price war within the OPEC+ alliance. The possibility of a new pump-at-will war for market share is currently assessed as remote, but the ongoing impasse at the group over production quotas is also threatening to derail the global economic recovery, the IEA said.

　　“[T]he possibility of a market share battle, even if remote, is hanging over markets, as is the potential for high fuel prices to stoke inflation and damage a fragile economic recovery. The uncertainty over the potential global impact of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the coming months is also tempering sentiment,” the IEA’s monthly report says.

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