据油价网2021年7月22日报道，每桶100美元油价的预测仍在流传。 但在油价本周早些时候暴跌了7%以后，市场出现了新的冷静。

　　据路透社报道，巴克莱银行预计未来几个月油价增长将更为温和和缓慢上涨。

　　但也不排除每桶100美元的油价。

　　全球原油库存仍然紧张。 在美国，截至7月16日当周，原油库存为4.397亿桶，比今年同期的五年平均水平低了7%。

　　令人担忧的是，由于全球原油库存仍然紧张，如果欧佩克+推迟将原油产量重新投入市场，油价可能会飙升至每桶100美元。 沙特阿拉伯是欧佩克内较为保守的成员国之一，在恢复市场供应方面，沙特阿拉伯倾向于采取更为谨慎的方式。

　　当然，正如巴克莱银行周四在一份报告中指出的那样，欧佩克+并不认为这是一个积极的举措，因为在每桶100美元的情况下，需求将会受到一些侵蚀。

　　欧佩克+周日同意在8月份日增40万桶原油产量，之后每月再日增40万桶，直到整个减产计划结束。

　　但巴克莱银行认为，尽管油价有望升至每桶100美元，但这不太可能出现。巴克莱银行预计，今年布伦特原油的平均价格为69美元/桶，高于此前预计的66美元/桶，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）的平均价格为67美元/桶。 巴克莱银行预计，明年布伦特原油均价为68美元/桶，WTI原油均价为65美元/桶。

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Barclays Sees Gradual Oil Price Rally

　　The forecasts for $100 oil are still being bandied about. But there is a new sober in the market after oil prices came crashing down earlier this week with a 7% slide.

　　Barclays, for one, is predicting more moderate oil price growth, eying a slow rise over the next few months, according to Reuters.

　　But it’s not ruling out $100 oil.

　　Oil inventories remain tight. In the United States, crude oil inventories are sitting at 439.7 million barrels as of the week ending July 16—that’s 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

　　And the fear is that as oil inventories remain tight around the globe, oil could jump to $100 should OPEC+ drag its feet in bringing back oil production into the market. Saudi Arabia is one of the group’s more conservative members, who favors a more cautious approach to bringing back supply to the market.

　　Of course, as Barclays pointed out in a note on Thursday, OPEC+ wouldn’t see this as a positive step because at $100 oil, there would be some demand erosion.

　　OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to bring back 400,000 bpd to the market in August, and another 400,000 bpd every month after that until the entire production cut has been wound down.

　　But $100 oil, while possible, is unlikely, according to Barclay’s, who sees the price of Brent averaging $69 per barrel this year, up from $66 per barrel in its previous estimate, with WTI averaging $67. Barclays sees Brent averaging $68 next year, with WTI averaging $65.

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