据能源世界网7月21日新德里报道，周二高盛(Goldman Sachs)将第三季度布伦特原油价格预期下调至每桶75美元，较之前的预期低5美元，由于德尔塔型新冠疫情病例激增，影响了需求。

　　由于担心德尔塔型冠状病毒感染增加对需求的打击，以及欧佩克+协议提高产量，周一油价每桶下跌5美元。

　　高盛表示，我们今年下半年石油平衡较之前稍紧，预计两个月100万桶/日需求受德尔塔影响超过了欧佩克+产量放缓的增长所抵消。

　　该行目前预估第三季短缺量为每日150万桶，此前预估为每日190万桶。

　　高盛预计，第四季度布伦特原油均价为每桶 80美元，此前预期为每桶75美元，预计今年最后一季度赤字为170万桶/天。

　　该机构称，石油市场向更高均衡水平的重新定价远未结束，看涨情绪正从需求面转向供应面。

　　高盛补充称，即使疫苗接种未能抑制住院率，这可能导致需求持续低迷，但在当前油价下，欧佩克+和美国页岩产量的下降将抵消需求的下降。考虑到德尔塔变异的不确定性，以及相对于最近的需求增长，供应发展速度较慢，未来几周油价可能会继续剧烈波动。

　　郝芬 译自 能源世界网

　　原文如下:

　　Goldman cuts Q3 Brent forecast to $75 a barrel on Delta demand hit

　　Goldman Sachs on Tuesday reduced its forecast for Brent crude oil to $75 a barrel for the third quarter, $5 lower than its previous estimate, as a surge in Delta variant COVID-19 cases takes a toll on demand.

　　Oil prices fell $5 a barrel on Monday in response to fears over the hit to demand from rising Delta coronavirus infections and an OPEC+ agreement to boost output.

　　"Our oil balances are slightly tighter in 2H21 than previously, with an assumed two-month 1 mb/d demand hit from Delta more than offset by OPEC+ slower production ramp-up," Goldman said.

　　The bank now projects a third-quarter deficit of 1.5 million bpd versus 1.9 million bpd forecast previously.

　　Goldman expects Brent oil prices to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter from its previous forecast of $75 and sees a deficit of 1.7 million bpd in the final quarter of this year.

　　"The oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side," the bank said.

　　Even if vaccinations fail to curb hospitalisation rates, which could drive a longer slump to demand, the decline would be offset by lower OPEC+ and U.S. shale output given current prices, Goldman added.

　　"Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks, given the uncertainties around Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments relative to the recent demand gains," it said.

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