据今日油价7月19日报道，油价在周一早盘下跌近4%，WTI原油跌至每桶69美元上方，此前欧佩克+石油输出国组织（OPEC+）周日决定，从8月份开始每月向市场返还40万桶/日（bpd），直至解除所有580万桶/日的减产。

　　欧佩克+联盟每月增加石油供应的前景，正值许多国家的感染人数上升之际，因为Delta型病毒传播速度更快。石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称:欧佩克)及其以俄罗斯为首的非欧佩克伙伴国供应增加，对全球石油需求复苏可能受阻的担忧拖累油价周一下跌。

　　截至美国东部时间上午8:22，WTI原油价格下跌3.9%至69.01美元，布伦特原油下跌3.52%至71.00美元。

　　欧佩克+就产量和基准产量水平达成协议的事实消除了市场的一个重大不确定性，其中一部分原因是担心联盟解体。

　　RBC资本市场全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft对CNBC表示，这笔交易对市场具有建设性意义，他指出：“这一协议应该让市场参与者感到安慰，即该集团不会走向混乱的分拆，短期内也不会打开生产闸门。”

　　尽管未来几个月，欧佩克+将增加越来越多的供应，但许多分析师仍认为，由于需求持续增长，市场将保持相对紧张的局面。

　　例如，荷兰国际集团（ING）保持了今年第三季度布伦特原油每桶75美元的油价预期，因为欧佩克（OPEC+）增加的供应符合该行此前的预测。

　　ING策略师Warren Patterson和Wenyu Yao周一早些时候表示：“健康的需求增长加上欧佩克+的温和供应增长，至少在短期内仍可能对石油市场构成支撑”。

　　高盛（Goldman Sachs）继续看好石油，甚至认为欧佩克+协议较今年夏天每桶80美元的布伦特原油期货预期上涨。

　　寿琳玲 编译自 今日油价

　　Oil Prices Crash After OPEC+ Reaches Deal To Ease Cuts

　　Oil prices dropped by nearly 4 percent early on Monday, with WTI Crude slipping to an eyelash above $69 per barrel, after OPEC+ decided on Sunday it would start returning 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.

　　The prospect of monthly increments in oil supply from the OPEC+ alliance comes just as COVID infections are rising in many countries because of the faster-spreading Delta variant. Concerns over potential hiccups in global oil demand recovery amid rising supply from OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners dragged oil prices down on Monday.

　　As of 8:22 a.m. EDT, WTI Crude prices were trading down by 3.9 percent at $69.01 and Brent Crude was down 3.52 percent at $71.00.

　　The fact that OPEC+ reached a deal on production and baseline production levels removed a major uncertainty from the market, some part of which was fearing a breakup in the alliance.

　　The deal is constructive for the market, Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC, noting that “This agreement should give market participants comfort that the group is not headed for a messy breakup and will not be opening up the production floodgates anytime soon.”

　　Despite the fact that OPEC+ will be adding more and more supply in each of the coming months, many analysts continue to believe that the market will remain relatively tight because demand continues to grow.

　　ING, for example, kept its oil price forecast of $75 per barrel for Brent Crude over the third quarter this year because the supply additions from OPEC+ are in line with the bank’s earlier projections.

　　“Healthy demand growth combined with moderate supply increases from OPEC+ will likely remain supportive for the oil market in short term at least,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said early on Monday.

　　Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on oil and even sees the OPEC+ deal as having a $2 per barrel upside to its $80 a barrel Brent outlook for this summer. ?

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