据美国彭博新闻社2021年7月16日伦敦报道，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）预测今明两年全球原油需求将逐步复苏，因为该组织即将达成一项协议，以恢复自新冠肺炎疫情大流行以来仍然关闭的原油生产。

　　对欧佩克原油供应的需求将继续攀升，将仍然远高于欧佩克目前的产出，到2022年下半年前将超过新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的水平。 但欧佩克表示，欧佩克在第一季度经历了一段停滞期，这可能导致全球市场恢复供应过剩。

　　欧佩克在其最新一期月度报告中表示：“展望2022年，风险和不确定性突出，需要仔细监测，以确保从疫情中恢复。”这份报告首次包含了对明年的详细估计。

　　这种喜忧参半的前景符合欧佩克及其盟友的计划，即逐步恢复他们仍在停产的大量原油产量，从本月到年底每月恢复40万桶/天的产量。 在这个增产路线图获得批准之前，欧佩克必须首先解决阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯之间的争端。

　　阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯在解决阿联酋称这是不公平的低产量限制方面取得了进展。 如果他们能克服痛苦的僵局，欧佩克+联盟就能继续重新启动备用原油产能。

　　李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC forecasts pre-pandemic oil demand will return in 2022

　　OPEC forecast a gradual recovery in demand for its crude this year and next, as the group closes in on a deal to revive the production still shuttered since the pandemic.

　　The need for supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue to climb, remaining well above the group’s current output and exceeding pre-virus levels by the second half of 2022. But it will go through a lull in the first quarter that could see the global market return to surplus, the group indicated.

　　“Looking ahead to 2022, risks and uncertainties loom large and require careful monitoring to ensure the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic,” OPEC said in its monthly report, which contained the first detailed estimates for next year.

　　The mixed outlook fits with plans by OPEC and its allies -- yet to be ratified -- to gently restore the vast amounts of production they still have offline in monthly tranches of 400,000 barrels a day. Before that road map can be approved, the group must first resolve a spat between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

　　The two countries have made progress in resolving a dispute over what the UAE says is an unfairly low output limit. If they can overcome the bitter impasse, the coalition can proceed with restarting the idled barrels.

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