据油价网2021年8月13日报道，虽然拜登政府日前呼吁欧佩克+增加超过已计划的原油产量，但主要石油预测人士降低了他们对市场需要更多欧佩克+原油的预期。

　　本周早些时候，白宫呼吁欧佩克+增加原油产量，以遏制可能破坏全球经济复苏的汽油价格上涨。

　　然而，彭博新闻的朱利安·李指出，同样在本周，美国能源信息署(EIA)、国际能源署(IEA)和欧佩克本身都下调了他们对今年和明年欧佩克原油需求的预测。

　　EIA在其8月份的短期能源展望(STEO)报告中估计，在今年第三季度和第四季度，欧佩克的原油产量仍将低于预期。 第三季度，全球对欧佩克原油需求将超过产量100万桶/天。 然而，这一差距将在第四季度下降到30万桶/天。

　　EIA 8月10日曾表示：“从2022年第一季度开始，我们预计欧佩克原油产量将超过全球对欧佩克原油产量需求的预期，这将导致原油库存增加，原油价格下跌。”一天后即8月11日，美国政府敦促欧佩克+打开水龙头。

　　EIA表示：“欧佩克+领导人预计将在今年12月再次开会，届时他们的削减产量计划将有所调整。”

　　IEA 8月12日警告称，亚洲为对抗德尔塔变异毒株肆虐出台的新的出行限制措施，将减缓今年下半年的全球原油需求增长，不过IEA对全年全球石油需求增长的预期基本保持不变。

　　IEA在其8月12日发布的备受关注的石油市场报告中表示：“欧佩克+的直接增产，与欧佩克+联盟外需求增长放缓和产量增加相冲突，消除了近期供应紧缩或超级周期的挥之不去的暗示。”

　　甚至在7月达成协议以后，欧佩克+在今年第四季度的原油产量预计仍将比其此前预期低20万桶/天，而在7月协议达成前，全球石油需求缺口预计高达200万桶/天。

　　IEA表示：“但如果欧佩克+继续取消减产，而不参与协议的产油国为应对油价上涨而增加产量，缺口规模可能在2022年恢复盈余。”

　　欧佩克在8月12日发表的月度报告中下调了全球原油需求。今年全球对欧佩克原油的需求比7月的预测下降20万桶/天，为2740万桶/天。明年全球对欧佩克原油需求预计将比7月预估下降110万桶/天，至2760万桶/天。

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Why The Market Doesn’t Need Much More OPEC+ Oil

　　While the Biden Administration calls on OPEC+ to boost production more than planned, the major oil forecasters scaled back their outlook on how much OPEC+ crude the market would need.

　　Earlier this week, the White House called on the OPEC+ group to increase oil production more than they had planned in order to tame rising gasoline prices that could derail the global economic recovery.

　　However, also this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC itself revised down their forecasts for the call on OPEC crude this year and next, Julian Lee of Bloomberg News notes.

　　In the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA estimated that OPEC crude oil production would remain lower than calls on OPEC through the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2021. This quarter, demand for OPEC’s oil will exceed production by 1.0 million bpd. However, this difference will drop to 300,000 in the fourth quarter.

　　“Beginning in 1Q22, we forecast OPEC crude oil production will outpace calls on OPEC production, contributing to increased crude oil inventories and lower crude oil prices,” the EIA said on Tuesday, a day before the U.S. Administration urged OPEC+ to open the taps.

　　“OPEC+ leaders are expected to reconvene in December 2021, when we expect some adjustments to their curtailment plan,” the EIA said.

　　The IEA, for its part, warned on Thursday that new mobility restrictions in Asia to fight the Delta variant were set to slow global oil demand growth in the second half of 2021, although it left its full-year demand growth estimates largely unchanged.

　　“The immediate boost from OPEC+ is colliding with slower demand growth and higher output from outside the alliance, stamping out lingering suggestions of a near-term supply crunch or super cycle,” the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report published on Thursday.

　　Even after the deal from last month, OPEC+ is estimated to pump about 200,000 bpd below the call on its crude in Q4 2021, compared with a deficit of up to 2 million bpd expected before the July agreement.

　　“But the scale could tilt back to surplus in 2022 if OPEC+ continues to undo its cuts and producers not taking part in the deal ramp up in response to higher prices,” said the IEA.

　　OPEC itself revised down demand for its crude in its monthly report on Thursday. Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 was revised down by 200,000 bpd from last month’s forecast to stand at 27.4 million bpd. Demand for OPEC crude next year was revised down by 1.1 million bpd from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 27.6 million bpd.

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