据阿拉伯贸易12月20日消息称，国际能源署(IEA)在一份新报告中称，继2019年和2020年下降后，全球燃煤发电量预计将在2021年增长9%，达到创纪录的10350太瓦时。

根据国际能源署的《2021年煤炭报告》，2021年全球煤炭发电量将创下新的年度纪录，这削弱了减少温室气体排放的努力，并可能使明年的全球煤炭需求达到历史最高水平。

今年经济的快速复苏推动了电力需求的回升，这大大超出了低碳供应的能力。天然气价格的大幅上涨也增加了对煤电的需求，使其更具成本竞争力。

2021年，全球煤炭总需求——包括发电以外的用途，如水泥和钢铁生产——预计增长6%。这一增长不会超过 2013 年和 2014 年达到的创纪录水平。

IEA 执行官Fatih Birol表示：“煤炭是全球碳排放的最大单一来源，今年煤炭发电的历史高位是一个令人担忧的信号，表明世界在努力将碳排放降至净零方面还有多远。”

“如果各国政府不采取强有力的、立即的行动，以公平、可负担和安全的方式解决煤炭排放问题，我们将几乎没有机会将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以内。”

在亚洲大国，尽管煤电在今年年底有所减速，但预计2021年煤电将增长9%。全球一半以上的燃煤发电都在此进行。在印度，预计将增长 12%。这将在两国创造历史新高，即使它们推出了大量的太阳能和风能发电能力。

尽管美国和欧盟今年的煤炭发电量将增长近20%，但这不足以使其高于2019年的水平。由于电力需求增长缓慢和可再生能源的快速扩张，预计这两个市场的煤炭使用量明年将重新下降。

朱佳妮 摘译自 阿拉伯贸易

原文如下：

Power generation from coal to hit record high in 2021: IEA

After falling in 2019 and 2020, global power generation from coal is expected to jump by 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a new report.

The amount of electricity generated worldwide from coal is surging towards a new annual record in 2021, undermining efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially putting global coal demand on course for an all-time high next year, according to the IEA’s Coal 2021 report.

The rebound is being driven by this year’s rapid economic recovery, which has pushed up electricity demand much faster than low-carbon supplies can keep up. The steep rise in natural gas prices has also increased demand for coal power by making it more cost-competitive.  

Overall coal demand worldwide – including uses beyond power generation, such as cement and steel production – is forecast to grow by 6% in 2021. That increase will not take it above the record levels it reached in 2013 and 2014.

“Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year’s historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions – in a way that is fair, affordable and secure for those affected – we will have little chance, if any at all, of limiting global warming to 1.5C.”

In the biggest country of Asia, where more than half of global coal-fired electricity generation takes place, coal power is expected to grow by 9% in 2021 despite a deceleration at the end of the year. In India, it is forecast to grow by 12%. This would set new all-time highs in both countries, even as they roll out impressive amounts of solar and wind capacity.

While coal power generation is set to increase by almost 20% this year in the United States and the European Union, that is not enough to take it above 2019 levels. Coal use in those two markets is expected to go back into decline next year amid slow electricity demand growth and rapid expansion of renewable power.

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