据天然气资讯1月5日消息称，美根据GlobalData的数据，假设天然气价格保持在每100万英热单位3.5美元以上，美国Marcellus和Utica页岩气田的天然气产量预计到2025年将突破日产420亿立方英尺大关。这家领先的数据和分析公司指出，尽管北美是最大的天然气生产国，供应约占美国天然气总产量的40%，但预计2023年后不会有新的管道上线。

虽然到2030年，阿巴拉契亚盆地的产量有可能增加到470亿立方英尺/天，但由于管道和基础设施的限制，仅从中游因素来看，该区块未来的产量就有减少的风险。

目前的管道基础设施和计划于2023年在宾夕法尼亚州、俄亥俄州和西弗吉尼亚州修建的11条天然气管道的总电力将只能支持410亿立方英尺/天的天然气流动能力。

考虑到资源潜力，Marcellus和Utica可以在推动美国天然气供应需求方面发挥重要作用。然而，将天然气输送到墨西哥湾沿岸需要额外的管道能力，大部分在建和批准的工厂都将位于墨西哥湾沿岸。

随着新的液化天然气终端明年投入使用，美国有望成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国，并在一定程度上填补欧洲和亚洲的需求缺口方面发挥重要作用。

曹海斌 摘译自 天然气资讯

原文如下：

Globaldata: Natural gas production growth in Appalachia

Natural gas production from the US’s Marcellus and Utica shale plays is forecast to cross the 42 billion ft3/d mark by 2025, according to GlobalData – assuming gas prices stay above US$3.5 per 1 million Btu. The leading data and analytics company notes that no new pipelines are expected to come online after 2023, despite the fact that North America is the largest gas producer and supplies approximately 40% of the total natural gas production in the US.

While the Appalachia basin has the potential to ramp up production to 47 billion ft3/d by 2030, pipeline and infrastructure limitations put the play at risk of curtailing production in the future based on the midstream factor alone.

Doh continues: “The combined power of both current pipeline infrastructure and the 11 gas pipelines planned to be built in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia by 2023 will be able to support a mere 41 billion ft3/d of natural gas flowing capacity.”

Doh adds: “With respect to LNG production, Marcellus and Utica could play an important role in driving demand for natural gas supply in the US, given their resource potential. However, it will require additional pipeline capacity to bring natural gas to the Gulf Coast, where most of the under-construction and approved plants are to be located.”

“With new LNG terminals launching next year, the US is on track to become the largest LNG exporter in the world and an important player to partially fill the demand gap in Europe and Asia.”

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