据今日油价网站1月12日消息 美国能源信息管理署（EIA）在其1月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中表示，由于供应增长超过需求增长，全球库存增加将使今明两年的油价下跌。

EIA表示，布伦特原油价格在2021年第四季度平均为79美元/桶，2022年平均为75美元，2023年平均为68美元。

EIA在其月度展望中称，美国基准WTI原油预计今年平均为每桶71.32美元，明年平均每桶63.50美元。

周三早些时候，在EIA发布每周库存报告之前，WTI原油交易价格在每桶82美元以上，布伦特原油交易价格在每桶84美元以上。此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二表示，美国经济只会受到奥密克戎病例激增的短期影响，并准备开始收紧货币政策。

根据EIA的估计，由于需求增长快于供应增长，去年全球平均每天消耗库存140万桶。然而，今年需求增长将放缓，而供应增长将加快，导致全球石油库存增加。

EIA称，受美国、欧佩克和俄罗斯产量增长的推动，2022年全球石油产量预计将增加550万桶/日，这三个国家的产量加起来将占增长的84%，即460万桶/日。

与此同时，美国政府指出，2022年全球石油消费量将增加360万桶/日。

EIA称，今年库存将增加50万桶/日，明年平均增加60万桶/日，给油价带来下行压力。

上个月，高盛预测，由于需求增长超过供应增长，2023年原油价格可能达到100美元。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

EIA Sees Oil Prices Dropping In 2022, 2023

Global inventory builds due to supply growth outpacing demand increases will pressure oil prices down this year and next, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for January.

Brent Crude prices, which averaged $79 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2021, are set to average $75 per barrel during 2022 and $68 a barrel in 2023, the EIA said. 

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, is expected to average $71.32 per barrel this year and $63.50 a barrel next year, the EIA said in its monthly outlook.

Early on Wednesday, before EIA’s weekly inventory report, WTI Crude was trading above $82, and Brent Crude was above $84 a barrel, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the U.S. economy would see only a “short-lived” impact from the Omicron surge, and was ready for the beginning of monetary policy tightening. 

According to EIA’s estimates, inventory withdrawals globally averaged 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, thanks to faster demand growth than supply increases. This year, however, demand growth is set to slow while supply will grow faster, leading to builds in global petroleum inventories.

The world’s oil production is set to jump by 5.5 million bpd in 2022, driven by production increases in the United States, OPEC, and Russia, which together will account for 84 percent, or 4.6 million bpd, of the growth, the EIA said.

At the same time, global petroleum consumption will increase by 3.6 million bpd in 2022, the administration noted.

Inventories will build by 500,000 bpd this year, and by an average 600,000 bpd next year, putting downward pressure on oil prices, the EIA says. 

Last month, Goldman Sachs forecast crude oil prices could hit $100 in 2023 as demand growth outpaces supply growth.

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