据美国油价网首尔报道，韩国计划转向氢。 我们应该关心吗? 目前有5200万人口的韩国是世界上第十大经济体，拥有世界第五大钢铁行业，韩国是全球一个主要的电子产品生产国,汽车产量世界排名第五和电池产量世界排名第二，国内大型国际公司拥有世界级的技术能力。 这个国家几乎没有什么自然资源，韩国有煤炭储备，但其99%的煤炭消费来自进口，仅此而已。  

2021年11月，韩国批准了2050年的氢目标，其中包括中期目标。 基本上，韩国希望用可再生能源取代煤炭消费(政府控制着电力公司)，用氢取代石油进口，并鼓励大型工业能源用户转向氢。韩国拥有庞大的钢铁工业，这是转型的主要目标。 新闻报道称，也由政府控制的韩国天然气公司将在本国西南部建造一个氢气生产设施。韩国政府也希望鼓励碳储存。 

现在说说策略。 毫无疑问，韩国不是生产绿色氢气的理想国家。韩国政府计划到2050年让韩国生产不到所需20%的氢气。 韩国将在海外投资生产氢气的项目，这意味着韩国将为国内企业和其他想要生产并销售给韩国的企业打开新的商机。韩国政府表示，它希望在此过程中创建30家全球性的氢公司。我们猜想，届时有许多氢公司将用今天的韩国大公司的名字。 

如果成功，韩国氢战略将体现出制定明确的政策，并在此过程中创造商机的价值。 韩国氢战略还表明了一种信念的回归，即世界贸易和竞争市场是好的，但不要依靠它们来找到解决全球气候变化或能源安全的办法。韩国人仍将从国外获得大部分能源，但最有可能的是从韩国控制的氢生产商那里获得能源，而不是外国政府或私人控制的石油、天然气和煤炭。 选择生产氢的传统国内能源公司可能会发现自己被市场拒之门外。 如果其他国家效仿，能源市场可能会变得越来越分裂。

传统的经济发展战略是留出一个国内市场，让当地公司在该市场发展技能和规模，并希望这些公司达到一定技能和规模的水平，以便在国外进行竞争。 也许我们能够从韩国人那里学到一些东西。  

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

What We Can Learn From South Korea’s Hydrogen Strategy

South Korea plans a pivot to hydrogen. Should we care? Well, South Korea, with a population of 52 million, is the tenth largest economy in the world, has the fifth largest steel industry in the world, is a major producer of electronics, automobiles (# 5 in world) and batteries (#2), and the home to huge international corporations with world class technological abilities. The country has little in the way of natural resources (it has coal reserves but imports 99% of its coal consumption, and that’s it. 

In November 2021, the cabinet approved a hydrogen target for 2050, with intermediate goals. Basically, the government wants to replace coal consumption with renewables (the government controls the electric company) and replace oil imports with hydrogen and encourage big industrial users of energy to turn to hydrogen. (Korea has a big steel industry, a main target for conversion.) News stories say that the gas company (also controlled by the government) will build a hydrogen production facility in the southwest of the country. The government also wants to encourage carbon storage. We assume that in a country with a tightly knit industrial base controlled by a few families, that the government has consulted with it and has bought in. 

Now for the strategy. You will no doubt argue that Korea is not an ideal spot for green hydrogen production. Well the government plans for Korea to produce less than 20% of the hydrogen it will need in 2050. It will invest in overseas projects that will produce hydrogen, and that really means that it will open up a new business opportunity for Korean companies and others that want to produce for sale to Korea. The government says it wants to create 30 global hydrogen companies in the process. We suspect that many will sport the names of today’s major Korean companies. 

The Korean strategy, if it works, will demonstrate the value of setting a clear policy, and creating business opportunities in the process. It also demonstrates a return to the belief that world trade and competitive markets are okay, but do not depend on them to find solutions to global climate change or energy security. (Okay, the Koreans would still get most of their energy from abroad, but most likely from Korean-controlled manufacturers of hydrogen, not from foreign-state or privately-controlled oil and gas and coal. ) Traditional internal energy companies that choose to go into hydrogen production might find themselves shut out of the market. If other countries follow suit, the energy market could become more and more balkanized.

The traditional economic development strategy was to set aside a domestic market, let local companies develop skills and scale in that market, and hope that those companies reach a level of skill and scale to compete abroad. Maybe we could learn something from the Koreans

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