据世界石油1月28日消息称，EIA在其1月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中预测，2022年欧佩克石油产量将增加近270万桶/日，这是自2004年以来欧佩克产量的最大年增长。我们此次上调原油产量预测主要是基于其对2022年1月OPEC+会议的解读，当时与会者重申了他们的决定，即继续每月增产40万桶，直到所有的减产都被逆转。

尽管近期非计划停产增加，但据估计，欧佩克成员国的剩余产能仍高于过去的平均水平。由于COVID-19大流行的爆发大大减少了需求，导致产油国减产，欧佩克的过剩原油产能在2020年年中增至近900万桶/天。自那以来，欧佩克的过剩产能一直在下降，最近一次是在2021年12月，平均为460万桶/天。据预测，到2022年，欧佩克原油产量将增加250万桶/天，平均达到2880万桶/天。

朱佳妮 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

EIA: OPEC production to grow in 2022

In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA forecasts that OPEC petroleum production will increase by nearly 2.7 million bpd in 2022, the largest y/y increase in OPEC production since 2004. This increase in our forecast of crude oil production is largely based on its interpretation of the January 2022 OPEC+ meeting, when participants reaffirmed their decision to continue to increase output by 0.4 million bpd each month until all of the production cuts are reversed. 

Despite the recent increase in unplanned outages, it is estimated that OPEC members still have more surplus production capacity than they have had on average in the past. OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity increased to nearly 9 million bpd in mid-2020 as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic greatly reduced demand, causing producers to lower output. OPEC’s surplus capacity has fallen since then and most recently averaged 4.6 million bpd in December 2021. It is forecasted that OPEC crude oil production will increase by 2.5 million bpd to an average of 28.8 million bpd in 2022.

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