据2月15日Oil Monster消息：摩根大通全球股票研究表示，欧佩克+产量不足和产能过剩问题可能会导致石油市场供应紧张，油价最早可能在今年第二季度达到每桶125美元。

该行在2月11日的一份报告中表示:“供应不足将在2022年持续上升，因为欧佩克+不太可能偏离目标配额增长，这将推高油价每桶逾30美元的风险溢价。”

周一，由于乌俄紧张局势升级，布伦特原油交易价格约为每桶94.55美元，而美国西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)交易价格约为每桶93.19美元。

欧佩克及其盟友(即欧佩克+)最近将月产量目标提高了40万桶/天，但多次未能实现。

在多年投资不足后，一些参与国正在努力提高产出。

国际能源署(IEA)在其最新月度报告中表示，1月份欧佩克+目标产量与实际产量之间的差距已扩大至90万桶/天。

“这种表现不佳的情况出现在一个关键时刻，在我们看来，随着全球其他产油国陷入困境，欧佩克+国家内部投资不足和疫情后石油需求上升的共同作用将导致潜在的能源危机。”摩根大通表示。

“此外，我们注意到非欧佩克产油国对油价上涨的供应反应平淡(主要是更加关注过渡/现金回报)，这可能会进一步增加10美元/桶的溢价。”分析师补充道。

冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

原文如下：

Tight Oil Market Could See Prices Hit $125 in Q2, JP Morgan Says

Shortfalls in OPEC+ production and spare capacity concerns are likely to keep the oil market tight and prices could hit $125 per barrel as early as the second quarter of this year, JP Morgan Global Equity Research said.

"Supply undershoot set to rise through 2022 as OPEC+ unlikely to deviate from targeted quota increases – driving a higher risk premium of more than $30 per barrel to oil prices," the bank said in a note dated Feb. 11.

Brent crude on Monday was trading around $94.55 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $93.19 a barrel around 1107 GMT amid escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, has raised its monthly output target by 400,000 barrels per day recently but has repeatedly failed to achieve those increases.

Some participating countries are struggling to ramp up output following years of under-investment.

The International Energy Agency in its last monthly report said the gap between the OPEC+ target and actual output in January had widened to 900,000 bpd.

"This underperformance comes at a critical juncture – and in our view, as other global producers falter, the combination of underinvestment within OPEC+ nations and post-pandemic rising oil demand will dovetail to a potential point of energy crisis," JP Morgan said.

"In addition, we note a muted supply response by non-OPEC producers to higher prices (led by a greater focus on transition/cash return) could add a further $10/bbl premium," the analysts added.

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