据今日石油网2022年3月21日报道，圭亚那当局日前表示，圭亚那将致力于支持一项在其海岸以外积极油气勘探和生产的计划，因为圭亚那认为，石油和天然气行业的收入在这个南美国家的能源转型中将发挥关键作用。 

根据挪威雷斯塔能源公司的说法，这很可能是事实。 但令人震惊的不仅仅是圭亚那石油工业可能的长期发展。 另外，圭亚那的石油产量在21世纪30年代将会继续增长，而世界大多数主要的近海深水生产商届时将会看到他们的产量水平下降。  

这是雷斯塔能源公司拉丁美洲分析师Sofia Forestieri在日前举行的加勒比油气虚拟峰会上做出的分析。

在介绍加勒比海油气行业的竞争格局时，Forestieri将圭亚那和苏里南的前景与世界上主要的深水生产国(包括挪威、英国、墨西哥和美国)进行了比较。

她说：“随着项目上线，我们看到圭亚那和苏里南以一种非常重要、非常成功的方式增加产量。”

今年，在埃克森美孚公司担任作业者的圭亚那斯塔布鲁克区块深水开发项目的总日产能将达到34万桶。 

Forestieri解释说，到2031年前，圭亚那的原油日产量预计将超过100万桶，届时圭亚那将超过挪威和安哥拉，成为世界上第三大深水产油国。 

Forestieri表示：“到2033年前，我们预计圭亚那的原油产量将超过美国墨西哥湾，成为全球第二大深水原油生产国。”  

雷斯塔能源公司还预计，到那时，除3个深水产油国外，所有深水产油国的原油日产量都将低于100万桶。 预计到2035年，圭亚那仍将以日产170万桶原油速度增长。

雷斯塔能源公司预计，到那时，巴西将是全球最大的深水产油国，其原油日产量将接近500万桶。 

李峻 编译自 今日石油网

原文如下：

Guyana on track to become second largest deepwater producer in the world, says Rystad Energy

Authorities in Guyana say the country is committed to supporting an aggressive exploration and production programme off of its coast since it sees revenues coming in from the oil and gas sector as playing a key role in the transformation of the South American nation.

And according to Norway-based Rystad Energy, that may very well be the case. But it isn’t just the likely longevity of Guyana’s oil industry that is striking. It is also that, while Guyana’s production grows in the 2030s, most leading offshore deepwater producers will see their production levels wane.

This is according to analysis from Sofia Forestieri, Latin America analyst for Rystad Energy, during the Caribbean Oil & Gas Virtual Summit last week.

During her presentation of the Caribbean oil & gas industry’s competitive landscape, Forestieri compared the prospects of Guyana and Suriname to the leading deepwater producers around the world, including countries like Norway, the United Kingdom, Mexico and the United States.

She said, “As projects come online, we see Guyana and Suriname ramping up production in a very important, very successful way.”

Guyana’s deepwater development projects at the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block will reach a combined capacity of 340,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year.

Forestieri explains that by 2031, the country is expected to soar beyond one million barrels per day, already overtaking Norway and Angola to be the third largest deepwater producer in the world.

“By 2033, we see Guyana overcoming the US Gulf of Mexico’s output and becoming the second largest deepwater crude producer in the world,” the analyst said.

By then, Rystad Energy also projects that all but three deepwater producers will have production levels below a million barrels a day. In 2035, where the projection ends, Guyana is still shooting upward at about 1.7 million barrels per day.

The only deepwater producer Rystad Energy expects to be above Guyana by then is Brazil, with close to 5 million barrels of oil per day.