据今日油价网站3月24日消息 英国《金融时报》援引本周商品全球峰会上的观点报道称，一些全球大型石油交易商预计油价将在今年年底前超过每桶200美元。

一位此前一直非常看好石油的发言人皮埃尔·安杜兰德表示：“几个月后我们不会恢复正常的业务，我认为我们将永远失去欧洲方面的石油供应。”

这位对冲基金经理本月早些时候首次做出每桶200美元的预测，称从欧佩克+ 的非洲成员国到美国页岩油地区的生产商将难以取代退出市场的原油。

RCMA集团董事长道格·金对英国《金融时报》表示，原油价格可能突破200美元，到年底达到250美元。

道格·金在英国《金融时报》峰会上表示：“这不是暂时的，这将是一次原油供应冲击。”

本月早些时候，有人预测布伦特原油到4月将达到200美元，但这似乎是对市场的反应。目前最初的冲击已经消退，价格也从禁令后的高位下滑。然而，由于分析师认为每天约有300万桶石油退出市场，上行潜力仍然很大。

据贸易行业称，问题在于这些石油不能轻易或迅速转换。

渣打银行石油和天然气主管阿洛克·辛哈在英国《金融时报》峰会上表示：“考虑到目前的情况，我认为这不是一个暂时的问题。现在必须作为一个长期问题来处理，这意味着我们需要寻找替代供应增长。”

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Top Oil Traders See Oil Topping $200 By End-2022

Some of the world’s biggest oil traders expect oil prices to exceed $200 per barrel by the end of the year, the Financial Times reported, citing opinions shared at its Commodity Global Summit this week.

“Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months,” said Pierre Andurand, who has been super bullish on oil for a while. “I think we’re losing the supply on the European side forever.”

The hedge fund manager first made his $200-per-barrel forecast earlier this month, saying that producers ranging from African members of OPEC+ to the U.S. shale patch will struggle to replace the crude going off the market. 

Yet Andurand is neither the only superbull nor the biggest one. Doug King, the chairman of RCMA Group, told the FT that crude oil could top $200 and reach $250 by the end of the year.

“This is not transitory. This is going to be a crude supply shock,” King told the FT summit.

Earlier this month, there were forecasts that Brent crude would hit $200 by April, but that seems to have been a reaction to the ban oil and fuel imports. Now that initial shock has subsided—and so have prices slipped from the heights reached following the ban. However, the upside potential remains considerable as analysts see some 3 million barrels daily of Russian oil going off the market. 

The problem is that these barrels cannot be replaced either easily or swiftly, according to the trading industry.

“I don’t think given the way things are going, this is a temporary problem,” Alok Sinha, head of oil and gas at Standard Chartered told the FT summit. “You now have to deal with this as a long term issue which means you need to find alternative supply growth.”