据美国油价网2022年4月22日报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）4月22日发布的最新预测显示，今年全球石油日需求量将减少140万桶。  

140万桶/天的损失将使全球石油日需求平均降至9960万桶，低于2019年1.002亿桶的水平。 Rystead表示，预计这一需求的反弹最快也要到明年才会出现。 

石油需求下降的原因可能是军事冲突、通货膨胀、新冠肺炎疫情引发的封锁、供应链中断等。 未来的封锁或地缘政治问题可能会带来更大的石油需求压力。

这家挪威能源咨询公司表示：“需求萎缩是全球经济活动放缓的直接影响。”该公司补充称，这种需求下降可能缓解目前紧张的石油市场，稳定油价。  

Rystad并不是唯一一家下调全球石油需求预测的公司。全球经济增长预期下降，欧佩克将今年全球石油日需求增长预测下调48万桶。 

国际能源署（IEA）还将其对全球石油日需求预测下调26万桶，以反应重新出现严重的疫情封锁。

与此同时，世界银行和国际货币基金组织双双下调了今年全球整体经济增长预期。

但Rystad并没有改变其看涨油价的前景。 Rystad表示，如果军事冲突持续下去，将会提高石油和天然气的价格，特别是如果欧盟最终在今年禁止进口大国的石油和天然气。 

“军事冲突对石油需求的最坏影响，是基于布兰特期货原油价格在第四季度升至每桶180美元，引发全球经济增长进一步放缓，并彻底摧毁石油需求。”Rystad如是表示。  

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Rystad: Oil Demand To Sink By 1.4 Million Bpd

Global oil demand will drop by 1.4 million barrels per day, according to the latest forecast by Rystad Energy on Friday cited by the National.

The 1.4 million bpd loss would sink oil demand to 99.6 million bpd on average, below 2019 levels of 100.2 million bpd. And a rebound in this demand isn’t expected to happy until next year at the soonest, Rystead said.

The drop in oil demand will likely come from the war, soaring inflation, covid-inspired lockdowns, and supply chain disruptions. And even more oil demand pressure could be applied through future lockdowns or geopolitical issues.

“Shrinking demand is a direct result of the impact of lower economic activity globally,” the consultancy said, adding that such a demand decrease could ease today’s tight oil markets, calming oil prices.

Rystad isn’t the only one lowering oil demand forecasts. OPEC cut its 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 480,000 bpd on the back of lower expected global economic growth given the war and the covid lockdowns.

The IEA also cut its oil demand forecast by 260,000 bpd to reflect the return of severe covid lockdowns.

Meanwhile, the World Bank and the IMF have both cut their overall global growth expectations for this year.

But Rystad isn’t changing its outlook for bullish oil prices. According to Rystad, if the war drags on, it will increase oil and gas prices, particularly if the EU ends up banning oil and gas this year.

“The war worst case for oil demand is premised on Brent prices reaching $180 per barrel in the fourth quarter, triggering a further economic slowdown and outright destruction of oil demand,” Rystad said.