据美国彭博新闻社2022年7月5日报道，世界最大投资银行及金融机构之一的美国花旗集团7月5日警告说，如果出现严重影响需求的经济衰退，到今年年底前原油价格可能暴跌至每桶65美元，到2023年底前进一步跌至每桶45美元。 

花旗集团包括Francesco Martoccia和Ed Morse在内的分析师在一份报告中称，这一前景是基于欧佩克+产油国没有任何干预，以及石油投资减少。全球原油基准布伦特原油最近的交易价格接近每桶113美元。

今年，在2月爆发军事冲突之后，油价飙升。由于各国央行加息和衰退风险上升，银行如今正试图将其进程拖到2023年?；ㄆ旒诺挠图壅雇鼻暗哪茉词谐∮肷鲜兰?0年代的危机进行了比较。目前，世行经济学家预计美国不会陷入经济衰退。 

花旗集团分析师在7月5日的报告中表示：“就石油而言，历史证据表明，只有在全球最严重的经济衰退中，石油需求才会出现负值?！薄暗谒芯盟ネ酥?，油价都会跌至接近边际成本?！?/p>

李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社

原文如下：

Citi Warns Oil May Collapse

Crude oil could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and slump to $45 by end-2023 if a demand-crippling recession hits, Citigroup Inc. has warned.

That outlook is based on an absence of any intervention by OPEC+ producers and a decline in oil investments, analysts including Francesco Martoccia and Ed Morse said in a report. Brent, the global crude benchmark, last traded near $113 a barrel.

Oil has soared this year following the war, and banks are now trying to chart its course into 2023 as central banks raise interest rates and recessionary risks mount. Citi’s outlook compared the current energy market with crises of the 1970s. At present, the bank’s economists do not expect the US to dip into recession.

“For oil, the historical evidence suggests that oil demand goes negative only in the worst global recessions,” the Citi analysts said in the July 5 note. “But oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost.”