德勤会计师事务所：今年勘探与生产公司将打破现金流纪录  

资本约束和更高的油气价格是现金流上升的主要原因  

如果油价保持强劲，美国页岩行业可能在2024年初实现无债务负担 

据美国油价网8月25日报道，德勤会计师事务所周四在一份新报告中称，由于能源市场正在进行调整，油价高企，今年全球油气勘探和生产（E&P）公司可能产生创纪录的1.4万亿美元现金流。  

德勤会计师事务所表示，高企的油气价格和金融纪律已经扭转了全球上游行业的趋势，其在资本纪律方面的努力已经获得了回报。

德勤会计师事务所表示，资本约束导致油气行业“目前处于最健康的时期之一，与其他行业相比，其杠杆率（20%）是有史以来最低的，股息收益率（6%）是有史以来最高的”。

德勤会计师事务所估计，如果布伦特原油价格平均为每桶106美元，今年全球油气行业的自由现金流将达到1.4万亿美元的历史最高水平。

在大宗商品价格飙升和炼油利润率多年来保持高企的情况下，石油巨头和美国页岩生产商都公布了第二季度创纪录或接近创纪录的收益和现金流。 

德勤会计师事务所表示，全球上游行业2030年前将产生高达1.5万亿美元的现金盈余，其中70%可能会在2024年产生。德勤会计师事务所表示，这些额外的资金将足以资助并平衡低碳和核心油气项目。

此外，如果油价保持强劲且市场自律，美国页岩行业有可能在2024年初实现无债务。据德勤会计师事务所称，在过去十年中，页岩生产商有9年的现金流为负，在2021年-2022年，页岩生产商的自由现金流可能会创下历史新高，有望弥补10年来3000亿美元的亏损。

德勤会计师事务所称，在大量现金流的支撑下，到2030年前，全球上游行业的低碳资本支出占总资本支出的比例可能从目前的5%提高到30%。  

德勤会计师事务所美国石油、天然气和化学品副总裁Amy Chronis在评论该报告时说：“过去几年，石油和天然气行业面临着真正的破坏，其中一些破坏早在疫情开始产生影响之前就露出痕迹。 然而，这种波动的意外结果是，该行业似乎处于相对强势的地位。”  

“那些投资新的商业模式，并能对不断变化的市场动态保持弹性的油气企业，将更有可能在这场能源转型中保持、引领和赢得胜利。”德勤会计师事务所在报告中如是说。

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Oil & Gas Industry Set For Record $1.4 Trillion Cash Flow In 2022

·     Deloitte: E&P firms are set to break cash flow records this year.

·     Capital discipline and higher oil and gas prices are the main reasons behind the rise in cash flows.

·     The U.S. shale industry could potentially become debt-free by early 2024 if prices stay strong.

Oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) firms globally could generate combined cash flows of a record $1.4 trillion this year, thanks to high prices in the ongoing readjustment in the energy markets, Deloitte said in a new report on Thursday. 

High oil and gas prices and financial discipline have turned the tide for the global upstream industry, and its efforts at capital discipline have paid off, Deloitte said. 

Capital discipline has resulted in the oil and gas industry being “in one of its healthiest periods currently, with its lowest ever leverage ratio (20%) and one of its highest ever dividend yields (6%), compared to other sectors,” according to Deloitte.  

The consultancy estimates that the industry will see its highest ever free cash flow of US$1.4 trillion in 2022 if Brent Crude price averages $106 per barrel.

Big Oil and U.S. shale producers alike reported record or close to record earnings and cash flows for the second quarter amid soaring commodity prices and multi-year high refining margins. 

Global upstream is set to generate up to $1.5 trillion in surplus cash by 2030, possibly with 70 percent of this surplus generated by 2024. This additional cash could be enough to fund and balance both low-carbon and core oil and gas priorities this decade, Deloitte said.

Moreover, the U.S. shale industry could potentially become debt-free by early 2024 if prices stay strong and discipline prevails. Shale producers, which generated negative cash flows in nine out of the last ten years, will likely see record-high free cash flows in 2021-2022 that could overcome the decade-long loss of $300 billion, according to Deloitte. 

Strengthened with massive cash flows, the global upstream industry could raise low-carbon capital expenditures to 30% of total capex by 2030 in certain scenarios, up from 5% currently, the consultancy said. 

“The oil and gas industry has faced real disruption over the past few years, some of which originated long before the Covid-19 pandemic began to make its impact. However, the unexpected result of this volatility is that the industry seems to be in a relatively strong position,” Amy Chronis, vice chair, U.S. Oil, Gas and Chemicals Leader, Deloitte LLP, said, commenting on the report. 

“Those who invest in new business models and remain resilient to the changing market dynamics will be more likely to sustain, lead and win throughout this energy transition.”