据美国钻井网站2022年12月7日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在周二（12月6日）发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告中下调了2022年和2023年布伦特原油价格预测。
根据STEO报告公布的数据，EIA目前预计今年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶101.48美元，明年为每桶92.36美元。在11月份发布的上一份STEO报告中，EIA预计今年布伦特现货价格平均为每桶102.13美元，2023年为每桶95.33美元。
EIA在其最新的STEO报告中强调，11月份布伦特原油现货均价为每桶91美元。EIA概述称，这略低于10月份的价格，并补充称，11月7日现货价格接近每桶100美元，11月底为每桶86美元。
EIA在12月份的STEO报告中表示：“油价下调主要是市场对全球经济增长的担忧。”
“今年布伦特原油现货价格将达到平均每桶101美元。尽管最近原油价格下跌，但我们仍预计2023年初全球石油库存下降将推动布伦特原油价格在2023年第二季度初回升至每桶90美元以上。”
EIA继续表示：“尽管根据我们对石油库存上升的预测，我们预计2023年下半年可能会出现一些油价下行压力，但这种压力可能会被持续的供应中断或产量增长低于我们的预测所平衡。”
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的价格为每桶79.47美元。布伦特原油12月1日收于每桶86.88美元。
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
EIA Lowers 2022 and 2023 Oil Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent oil price forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on Tuesday.
The EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $101.48 per barrel this year and $92.36 per barrel next year, according to the STEO. In its previous STEO, which was released in November, the EIA saw the Brent spot price averaging $102.13 per barrel in 2022 and $95.33 per barrel in 2023.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that the spot price of Brent crude oil averaged $91 per barrel in November. This was slightly lower than in October, the EIA outlined, adding that daily spot prices reached almost $100 per barrel on November 7 before ending the month at $86 per barrel.
“The price declines were largely the result of market concerns about global economic growth,” the EIA stated in the December STEO.
“Brent crude oil spot prices are on pace to average $101 per barrel in 2022. Despite the recent drop in crude oil prices, we still expect that falling global inventories of oil in early 2023 will push Brent prices back above $90 per barrel by the beginning of the second quarter of 2023,” the EIA added.
“Although we expect some downward oil price pressure could emerge in the second half of 2023 based on our forecast of rising oil inventories, that pressure will likely be balanced by the ongoing possibility of supply disruptions or production growth that is slower than our forecast,” the EIA continued.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $79.47 per barrel. Brent closed at $86.88 per barrel on December 1.
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