巴克莱银行：全球制造业活动放缓可能导致原油价格进一步下行

巴克莱银行预计，从2023年第四季度到2024年第四季度，产能大国液体日产量将减少70万桶

巴克莱银行也没有冲销重新开放对原油需求的潜在提振

据油价网2023年1月10日报道，路透社报道说，巴克莱银行周二警告称，“我们可能会看到原油价格每桶下跌15至25美元的风险，而目前的预测是每桶98美元。”

在最近的一份报告中，巴克莱银行将这种下行风险与全球制造业活动可能继续放缓联系起来。“考虑到宏观经济背景的挑战，（我们）强调，如果全球制造业活动恶化，重蹈2008至2009年的覆辙，我们的预估原油价格每桶将下跌15至25美元。”巴克莱银行称，“这意味着需求预估将日降100万至200万桶。”

巴克莱银行表示，该行对油价仍持“建设性”态度，指出这是因为美国产量增长放缓，欧佩克+的市场反应，以及制裁导致产能大国原油供应退出市场。不过，巴克莱银行表示，“石油的周期性需求趋势正在下行” 。

巴克莱银行预计，从2023年第四季度到2024年第四季度，产能大国的液体日产量将减少70万桶。

与此同时，美国能源信息署（EIA）也发布了新的2023年布伦特原油预测。EIA周二发布的最新一期《短期能源展望》报告显示，EIA预计今年布伦特原油的平均价格将为每桶83.10美元，低于去年的每桶100.94美元。

巴克莱银行在强调潜在下行风险的同时，也没有冲销重新开放对原油需求的潜在提振。

巴克莱银行去年10月将2022年和2023年的布伦特原油价格预测分别下调至每桶100美元和98美元，原因是预计全球石油需求增长将放缓——此前在8月，巴克莱银行将这两年的原油价格预测下调至每桶103美元。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Barclays Sees $15-$25 Barrel Downside If Manufacturing Activity Slows

·     Barclays: slowdown in global manufacturing activity could lead to increased downside for crude prices.

·     Barclays sees an estimated decline in the third producer's liquids output of 700,000 bpd from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.

·     Barclays also isn’t writing off a potential boost in demand from reopening.

Barclays cautioned on Tuesday that we could see a $15-$25 barrel downside risk for crude oil prices compared to its current forecast of $98 per barrel, according to Reuters.

In a recent note, Barclays linked that downside risk to a possible continued slowdown in global manufacturing activity. “Given the challenging macroeconomic backdrop (we) highlight $15-25/barrel of downside to our forecast if the slump in global manufacturing activity worsens similar to the 2008-09 episode,” Barclays said, adding that it “would imply 1-2 million barrels per day downside to our demand estimates.”

The bank said it remained “constructive” on oil prices, pointing to slowing U.S. output growth, market responses from OPEC+, and sanctions taking Russian crude supply off the market. Still, “the cyclical demand trends are pointing south for oil,” Barclays said.

Barclays sees an estimated decline in the third producer's liquids output of 700,000 bpd from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.

The forecast comes as the EIA published a new 2023 Brent crude forecast as well. The Energy Information Administration estimates that the average price for Brent crude oil will be $83.10 per barrel this year—down from $100.94 per barrel last year, the latest edition of its Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday shows.

While highlighting the potential downside risk, Barclays also isn’t writing off a potential boost in demand from reopening.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2022 and 2023 last October to $100 and $98 per barrel, respectively, due to an expectation of slowing growth in oil demand—this followed a previous downward revision in August to $103 per barrel both years.