据阿拉伯贸易网2023年3月13日伦敦报道，惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)上调了2024年至2025年的油价预期，预计地缘政治问题将延长油价回落至较低长期水平的时间。

惠誉国际评级表示，它还下调了2023年对欧洲TTF和美国亨利中心天然气价格的假设，反映了欧洲需求的减少，主要是由于需求破坏、充足的液化天然气供应、高于平均水平的天然气库存水平以及美国产量将增加的预期。

惠誉国际评级认为，2024年布伦特原油价格为75美元/桶(早期假设为65美元/桶)，2025年为65美元/桶(早期假设为53美元/桶)。 

惠誉国际评级说：“我们上调2024至2025年油价假设反映了我们的观点，即由于供应收紧以及欧佩克+对供应增加的谨慎态度，原油价格将需要更长的时间才能放缓。鉴于全球备用产能相当低，且需求不断增加，中期内市场可能仍将吃紧。不过，我们预计市场将逐渐调整，尤其是得益于欧佩克以外(尤其是美国)的原油产量增长，以及欧佩克国家(尤其是沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋)产能增加的前景。”

惠誉国际评级已将2023年至2025年布伦特原油和WTI原油之间价差的假设提高到每桶5美元，这反映了当前市场价差的扩大，由于运输成本上升和市场波动，价差短期内不太可能缩小。惠誉国际评级预计，从2026年起，这一价差将缩小至每桶3美元。

惠誉国际评级说：“我们对2023年布伦特原油和长期油价的假设保持不变。目前市场供需基本平衡，尽管需求市场逐步重新开放，这可能会增加需求，而产能大国的石油出口迄今为止已经改道，而不是实质性减少。我们的油价长期假设反映了能源转型导致的长期需求下降。”

李峻 编译自 阿拉伯贸易网

原文如下：

Fitch Ratings raises oil price assumptions for 2024-2025

Fitch Ratings has increased its oil price assumptions for 2024-2025 on the expectation that geopolitical issues will extend the period before prices moderate towards lower, long-term levels. 

It has also reduced its 2023 assumptions for European TTF and US Henry Hub gas prices for 2023-2024, reflecting reduced demand in Europe, primarily due to demand destruction, ample LNG supplies, higher-than-average gas levels in storage and its expectation that production in the US will increase, said Fitch Ratings.

Fitch assumes a Brent price of $75/bbl in 2024 (old assumption - $65) and $65 in 2025 (old assumption $53/bbl). 

"Our increased 2024-2025 oil price assumptions reflect our view that it will take longer for prices to moderate due to tightening supply from Opec+’s cautious approach to supply increases. The market is likely to remain tight over the medium term, given fairly low spare capacity and increasing demand. However, we expect the market to gradually adjust, particularly thanks to production growth outside Opec (particularly in the US) and the prospect of capacity increases in Opec countries (particularly in Saudi Arabi and the UAE)," it said.

It has increased its assumption for the Brent-WTI differential to $5/bbl for 2023-2025, reflecting the wider current market differential, which is unlikely to shrink in the near term because of higher shipping costs and market volatility. It assumes the differential will shrink to $3/bbl from 2026.

"Our 2023 Brent and long-term oil price assumptions remain unchanged. The market is currently broadly balanced, despite market’s gradual reopening, which could potentially increase demand while oil exports have been re-routed so far, rather than materially reduced. Our long-term assumptions reflect falling long-term demand due to the energy transition."