由于致密油和页岩气地区的产量增加，美国今年的石油日产量预计将达到1240万桶，达到历史最高水平

尽管在用钻机数量减少，且此前开钻但未完钻（DUC）井数量减少，但二叠纪盆地的石油日产量仍达到了580万桶的新高

由于美国战略石油储备降至1983年以来的最低水平，市场担忧加剧；今年下半年的油价在很大程度上取决于沙特阿拉伯和欧佩克的决定

  据油价网2023年6月19日报道，我（本文作者）对2023年能源的预测之一是，美国今年将创下年度石油产量历史新高。由于时间正接近今年年中，这一预测仍在朝着准确的方向发展。

EIA最新的每周石油状况报告显示，目前美国石油产量为1240万桶/天。这比一年前增加了40万桶/天，但仍低于2019年11月达到的1300万桶/天的水平。尽管如此，今年迄今美国的石油产量仍高于2019年历史最高的1230万桶/天。

致密油和页岩气地区仍然是美国油气产量增长的主要推动力。二叠纪盆地的石油日产量达到了580万桶的历史最高水平，甚至超过了沙特阿拉伯探明石油储量最大的盖瓦尔油田。然而，近几个月来，二叠纪盆地的石油产量增长放缓，新井只是抵消了老井的产量下降。

根据贝克休斯公司公布的在用钻机数量统计数据，自去年以来，美国的在用石油钻机数量下降了5%。然而，以前开钻但未完钻(DUC)井的库存量也在继续下降。在过去的一年里，DUC井的库存量下降了8%，但在过去的3年里，DUC井的库存量下降了45%。从这个角度来看，美国DUC井库存量目前处于大约十年来的最低水平。

这意味着产量的增加主要是由DUC井驱动的。随着DUC井库存量的持续下降，产量可能会进一步增加，但为了使石油产量从目前的水平大幅增加，在用钻机数量可能会很快增加。

战略石油储备(SPR)仍然是一个令人担忧的问题，因为目前的库存处于1983年以来的最低水平。在过去一年里，为了应对不断上涨的油价，SPR的库存水平已消耗31%。可以说，这在一定程度上抑制了去年油价的上涨，但也让美国在真正紧急的情况下失去了一个实质性缓冲。

当然，这种活动在很大程度上是由价格驱动的。石油价格从去年的120美元/桶下降到今天的不到70美元/桶。汽油零售均价也从一年前的每加仑5.11美元降至目前的每加仑3.71美元。汽油价格已经回到了地缘政治冲突之前的水平。

今年下半年的情况将在很大程度上取决于沙特阿拉伯和欧佩克。他们已经发出信号，他们觉得定价权已经回到了对他们有利的方向。事实上，随着SPR库存量的减少，如果沙特阿拉伯继续减产，美国就没有太多可用的工具来应对油价飙升。

所有这些都表明，今年下半年油价可能会上涨。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

The Permian Basin Is Out-Producing Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar Field

? The U.S. is predicted to break a new record in oil production this year, with current production at 12.4 million barrels per day, primarily due to increased output in tight oil and shale gas regions.

? Despite a decline in the number of drilling rigs and a depletion of wells previously drilled but uncompleted, the Permian Basin has reached a new high of 5.8 million barrels per day.

? Concerns rise as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reaches its lowest level since 1983; oil prices in the second half of the year are largely dependent on decisions made by Saudi Arabia and OPEC.

One of my 2023 energy predictions was that the U.S. would set a new annual oil production record this year. As we approach the midpoint of the year, this prediction is still tracking toward being accurate.

The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows current U.S. oil production to be 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd). That’s an increase of 400,000 bpd from a year ago, but still short of the 13.0 million bpd level reached in November 2019. Nevertheless, year-to-date oil production is running ahead of the record 12.3 million bpd level for all of 2019.

The tight oil and shale gas regions continue to be the primary driver of rising U.S. oil and gas production. The Permian Basin has reached an all-time high of 5.8 million bpd, out-producing even Saudi Arabia’s massive Ghawar oilfield. However, production gains in the Permian have slowed in recent months, with new wells just offsetting the production decline in legacy wells.

According to the Baker Hughes rig count, the number of wells drilling for oil in the U.S. has declined by 5% since last year. However, the inventory of wells that were previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC) also continues to decline. Over the past year, the DUC inventory has decreased by 8%, but it’s down a whopping 45% over the past three years. For perspective, the DUC inventory is now at its lowest level in about a decade.

This means that production increases are primarily being driven by finishing previously drilled wells. Production may be able to increase a bit more as the DUC inventory continues to decline, but the rig count will likely have to increase soon for oil production to increase much from current levels.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a concern, as the current inventory is at the lowest level since 1983. Over the past year, the level of the SPR has been depleted by 31% in an effort to combat rising oil prices. That arguably helped stem the rise in oil prices last year, but it removed a substantial cushion the U.S. had in case of a real emergency.

Of course, much of this activity is being driven by price. Oil prices have declined from $120 a barrel (bbl) at this time last year to just under $70/bbl today. In turn, average retail gasoline prices have declined from $5.11 a gallon a year ago to $3.71 a gallon at present. Gasoline prices have returned to about the level they were at prior to the war.

What happens in the second half of the year will largely depend upon Saudi Arabia and OPEC. They are already signaling that they feel like pricing power has shifted back in their favor. Indeed, with a reduced SPR inventory, the U.S. doesn’t have a lot of tools available for fighting an oil price surge if Saudi production cuts continue.

All of this suggests that oil prices will likely increase during the second half of the year.