据管道&天然气杂志网7月17日报道，根据伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)的一份新报告显示，在政府对运输部门的新激励措施的推动下，北美可再生天然气(RNG，也称为生物甲烷)市场有望大幅扩大，到2050年可能增长10倍，达到40亿立方英尺/天。

仅在2022年，市场就经历了显著增长，新增产能为6000万立方英尺/天，显示了RNG日益突出的地位。

根据“北美可再生天然气市场状况”报告，RNG项目的数量在过去五年中翻了一番，2022年宣布了66个未来项目。总体而言，北美市场规模为3.85亿立方英尺/天，其中得克萨斯州（6200万立方英尺/天）、加利福尼亚州（3300万立方英尺/天）和宾夕法尼亚州（3300万立方英尺/天）处于领先地位。

最近旨在降低温室气体排放的法令和激励措施刺激了这一活动，其中最引人注目的是《通货膨胀削减法案》中针对可再生天然气开发的投资税收抵免(ITC)和美国环保署可再生燃料标准计划中的低碳燃料计划。

伍德麦肯兹的高级研究分析师Natalia Patterson表示，可再生天然气越来越受欢迎，因为它的碳强度比天然气项目低五倍，当用作运输燃料时，有助于大大减少排放。据估计，超过一半的RNG产品被用作天然气汽车的燃料。

垃圾填埋场通过甲烷排放的原料占了最大的一部分，但动物粪便项目正在增加，其次是食物垃圾和废水处理项目。

尽管最近的增长，RNG市场目前只占北美天然气市场的0.5%。然而，随着政策的支持和技术的不断发展，伍德麦肯兹预计到2050年，它的市场份额将增长到3%，达到每天40亿立方英尺。

他说，新的政策框架有机会推动该行业的更多活动，但我们也需要看到自愿的努力，特别是来自工业部门，因为越来越多的公司致力于低碳倡议。工业部门的增长将有可能使运输部门对传统可再生天然气的需求相形见绌。

郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网

原文如下:

Mackenzie: North American RNG Market Could Reach 4 Bcf/d by 2050

The North American renewable natural gas (RNG) market is poised for significant expansion, potentially growing tenfold to reach 4 Bcf/d by 2050, driven by new government incentives for the transportation sector, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.

In 2022 alone, the market experienced remarkable growth, with the addition of 60 MMcf/d of new production capacity, showcasing the increasing prominence of RNG, also known as biomethane.

According to the report “North American renewable natural gas state of the market” the number of RNG projects has doubled in the last five years and 66 future projects were announced in 2022. In total, the North American market size sits at 385 MMcf/d, with states such as Texas (62 MMcf/d), California (33 MMcf/d), Pennsylvania (33 MMcf/d), leading the way.

Activity has been spurred by recent mandates and incentives aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions, most notably through investment tax credits (ITC) in the Inflation Reduction Act for RNG development and low-carbon fuel programs in the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard program.

“RNG has become more popular as it can have five times lower carbon intensity than natural gas projects and helps reduce emissions considerably when used for transportation fuel,” said Natalia Patterson, senior research analyst with Wood Mackenzie. “More than half of RNG production is estimated to be consumed as fuel for natural gas vehicles.” 

Landfills make up the largest portion of the capacity by feedstock through methane emissions, but animal waste projects are on the rise, followed by food waste and wastewater treatment projects.

Despite the recent growth, the RNG market currently only makes up 0.5% of the North American natural gas market. Yet with continued policy support and technology development, Wood Mackenzie projects it will growth to 3% of the market by 2050, for a total of 4 billion cubic feet per day.

“There are opportunities for new policy framework to drive more activity in the sector, but we will also need to see voluntary efforts as well, particularly from the industrial sector as more firms commit to low carbon initiatives,” said Patterson. “The growth in the industrial sector would have the potential to dwarf traditional RNG demand in the transportation sector.”