油价网7月14日报道，据能源转型非营利组织洛基山研究所（Rocky Mountain Institute，简称RMI）与贝索斯地球基金（Bezos Earth Fund）合作的最新分析显示，到2030年，风能和太阳能发电量将继续飙升，占据全球电力的比例将从目前的12%增至超过三分之一。

预计风能和太阳能的进一步增长将使全球电力系统走上IEA预想的宏大零排放路线。根据该研究，可再生能源的激增将使太阳能和风能在2030年的发电量达到12000太瓦时至14000太瓦时，比2022年水平高出3至4倍，也将超过COP28气候峰会前提出的到2030年全球可再生能源容量增至三倍的呼吁。

过去十年中，风能和太阳能所取得的成本下降预计将持续，到2030年，太阳能和风能的价格预计将再次下降50%。RMI的分析预测，太阳能价格到2030年将再次降至每兆瓦小时20美元左右，相比目前每兆瓦小时40美元以上的价格减少一半。

上个月，IEA在一份报告中指出，欧洲的能源危机、美国的通货膨胀削减法案以及亚洲绿色能源装机的持续强劲扩张，都将为今年可再生能源容量增加带来有史以来最大增幅。

全球可再生能源装机的新增容量预计将在今年激增至440吉瓦，同比增加107吉瓦，创下有史以来新装机容量增加最大值，其中光伏发电装机的新增量将占到可再生能源容量增长的三分之二。

胡耀东 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Wind And Solar To Generate 33% Of Global Power By 2030

Wind and solar power generation will continue surging to the point of accounting for more than one-third of global electricity by 2030, up from 12% now, according to a new analysis by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a nonprofit organization focused on the energy transition.

The expected further surge in wind and solar puts the global power system on track for the IEA’s ambitious net-zero pathway, RMI said in the research done in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund. 

based on the forecasts, the surge in renewables would see solar and wind generate 12,000-14,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030. This would be 3 to 4 times higher compared with 2022 levels, and would also exceed recent calls ahead of the COP28 climate summit for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030, RMI said. 

The cost declines wind and solar have achieved over the past 10 years are expected to continue with solar and wind roughly halving in price again by 2030. RMI’s analysis forecasts that solar prices will roughly halve again by 2030, falling to as low as $20 per megawatt-hour (MWh) for solar, compared to over $40 per MWh now.

Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report that the energy crisis in Europe, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, and the continued strong expansion of green energy installations in Asia are all expected to contribute to the biggest-ever increase in renewable energy capacity additions this year.

Globally, new installations of renewable energy capacity are expected to surge to 440 gigawatts (GW) this year, up by 107 GW year-on-year and the largest increase in new capacity ever seen, the IEA said in its report. Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are set to account for two-thirds of the increase in renewable power capacity this year.