据油价网2023年7月26日报道，沙特预计将把其自愿每天再削减100万桶原油供应的协议延长至9月份，以支持油价反弹。这个欧佩克最大产油国7月宣布进一步减产，以在需求疲软的情况下支撑更高的油价。彭博新闻社日前进行的一项调查的6名参与者预测，沙特将逐步减少额外减产，在9月份停止25万至50万桶/天的减产。

咨询公司FGE短期全球石油服务主管詹姆斯·戴维斯告诉彭博新闻社记者：“有充分的证据表明沙特将在9月份开始取消减产。市场迫切需要这些原油，炼油商们正争相获得这些原油。”

减产措施似乎奏效了，油价在过去一个月上涨了大约12%，至每桶83美元左右。不过，目前的油价对沙特来说可能太低了。

伦敦经纪公司PVM Oil Associates Ltd.的分析师Tamas Varga告诉彭博新闻社记者：“沙特希望看到油价长期上涨至每桶90美元，并希望看到亚洲经济数据可能的改善，从而开始考虑将每天削减的100万桶原油重新投入市场。”

尽管如此，全球原油市场预计将逐渐收紧，随着时间的推移这应该会提振油价。总部位于巴黎的IEA预测，今年下半年全球原油短缺将达到170万桶/天左右。渣打银行大宗商品专家预测，8月份全球原油市场将出现281万桶/天的供应缺口；9月份为243万桶/天，11月和12月超过200万桶/天。分析师们还预测，到今年年底前，全球原油库存将减少3.1亿桶，2024年第一季度将再减少9400万桶，从而推高油价。据专家预测，布伦特原油价格将在今年第四季度攀升至93美元/桶。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia Likely To Extend Oil Production Cuts

Saudi Arabia is expected to prolong its voluntary 1 million-barrel oil supply cut into September as it seeks to support the rebound in oil prices. The top OPEC producer introduced the additional cutback this month in a bid to support higher oil prices amid faltering demand. Six participants in a Bloomberg survey have predicted the Saudis will taper off their extra cut by restoring 250,000-500,000 barrels a day of halted production in September. 

“There’s ample evidence for Saudi Arabia to start unwinding the cuts in September. The market is screaming out for these barrels, and refiners are scrambling to get hold of them,”James Davis, director of short-term global oil services at consultants FGE, has told Bloomberg

The production cuts appear to have worked, with oil prices climbing about 12% in the past month to about $83 a barrel. Still, current oil prices might be too low for Saudi Arabia since it needs $100-a-barrel crude to balance its books.

“The kingdom will want to see a protracted rise toward $90 a barrel and possibly improvement in Asia economic data to start considering putting the 1 million barrels per day back into the market,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokers PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London, has told Bloomberg.

Nevertheless, oil markets are expected to gradually tighten, which should boost prices as the months roll on. The International Energy Agency(IEA) in Paris has predicted an oil shortage of about 1.7 million barrels a day during the second half of the year. Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have predicted that global oil markets will register a supply deficit of 2.81 million barrels per day in August; 2.43mb/d in September and more than 2mb/d in November and December. The analysts have also projected that global inventories will fall by 310mb by end-2023 and another 94mb in the first quarter of 2024 thus pushing oil prices higher. According to the experts, Brent prices will climb to $93/bbl in the fourth quarter.